A wet dream for Umno... or not

A wet dream for Umno... or not

IT'S JUST POLITICS

Sunday, 1 Jul 2018

by philip golingai

WITH Umno’s 50-something MPs, there is always a possibility that the party can use that sizeable number to make a deal to get itself back to Federal power.

On Monday, its then acting president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi gave that hope to Umno members when he said he was confident that the party would return to Putrajaya before GE15. He said the shaky Pakatan Harapan would collapse soon and Umno had the most number of MPs (54 in total, but so far two MPs have quit the party).

Zahid’s statement, according to Universiti Utara Malaysia political lecturer Prof Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani was just rhetoric. “It was said within the context that he wanted to convince Umno members to support him to be party president,” he said.

Mohd Azizuddin does not think that the Pakatan Harapan government will implode.

“Looking at the broader context, the ruling government consists of four parties and there will be push and pull in the coalition. But as long as (Tun) Dr Mahathir Mohamad is there, I can’t see that there will be a split,” he said.

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Assoc Prof Dr Faisal S. Hazis does not think that Pakatan Harapan will implode in the near future either.

“Yes, Pakatan is quite fragmented but they have one common goal which is to remain in power and that interest will bind them,” he said. “You can see some struggle between leaders from Pakatan.”

For example, he said, PKR leaders made stinging remark against Regional Development Minister Rina Harun of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) for saying that the RM100mil allocated for villages throughout the country would only be distributed to states under Pakatan for now.

But that, Faisal said, was the manifestation of a post-Barisan Malaysia where politicians from the ruling government could be critical of their colleagues and peers.

“Mind you, Pakatan Harapan is new, it was set up just before GE14 whereas Barisan Nasional has existed for many decades. You will see many struggles happening within this ruling coalition,” he said.

Penang Institute political scientist Dr Wong Chin Huat did not mince his words when asked about Dr Ahmad Zahid’s statement.

“Zahid and Umno should stop their wet dream that they can get back to power before GE15 through Pakatan’s implosion. The internal difference within Pakatan is no deeper than that in Barisan,” he said.

“What kept Barisan together is the vastly unfair advantage of incumbency – which causes Barisan to disintegrate within two months after defeat. Now that Pakatan controls the winner-takes-all system, Umno will die in starvation of resources before it gets a second chance.”

However, there are potential minefields that Pakatan could step on that could result in them imploding or exploding.

Pakatan’s possible implosion, according to Wong, will not be due to ideological differences but the structural flow of the Barisan coalition model that the ruling coalition has copied.

The model does not allow healthy competition among coalition partners as constituencies are allocated to component parties on a near-permanent basis – those won would be kept by the winners in the next round.

“All this means tension will likely rise between allies and also between factions in parties eyeing for whatever winnable seats left. If such tension goes out of hand, then frictions may lead to implosion, but it would not kill Pakatan – if some MPs quit Pakatan, many others from Umno and Gabungan Parti Sarawak would be more than happy to replace them,” he said.

For Mohd Azizuddin, one of the biggest minefields for Pakatan is PKR de facto Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s ambition to be Prime Minister.

“If Anwar talks too much or is seen to be betraying Dr Mahathir, there might be a split in Pakatan. Anwar needs to allow Dr Mahathir to run the country and Dr Mahathir must think that there will be no challenge from Anwar for the PM post and also allow him to take over in two years,” he said.

Some, according to Mohd Azizuddin, see Anwar as a man in the hurry to be PM.

“He is already preparing himself to be the next PM. You can see how he is travelling around the world to meet with leaders. Anwar also has said that within four or five months, he wants a by-election so that he could contest and be an MP,” he said.

Anwar, who was DPM when Dr Mahathir was the fourth PM, is a factor to consider in terms of the stability of the Pakatan government, said Faisal.

“He plays an important role because you have two strong personalities within Pakatan. It won’t be a problem if you just have one, which is Dr Mahathir. But you have two big personalities representing two different political parties and they (Dr Mahathir and Anwar) have a long history (Dr Mahathir sacking Anwar as deputy Prime Minister and the sodomy and corruption charges) as well,” he said.

Anwar should stick to the script, according to Faisal.

“Initially when Anwar was just released from prison, he said he was going to relax and go around the world as he has many invitations overseas and he was not in the hurry to back to Parliament as the PM was Dr Mahathir. But later, Anwar said he might contest in a by-election soon,” he said.

Wong said he does not see the Dr Mahathir versus Anwar fight as certain as he does not subscribe to conspiracy theories.

“However, it will be possible if one: there is no clear transition plan that assures both Dr Mahathir and Anwar; and two: the overwhelming influx of Umno lawmakers into PPBM and PKR,” he said.

Pakatan Harapan has to tread carefully over the potential minefields, if not Umno’s wet dream of coming back in power might become a reality.